On 2 September 2026, SMCCO hosted an evening recap with two quite different lenses on the same market.
Paul Shih, a Queensland property professional, investor and educator, walked through the contradictions sitting underneath the headlines. James Hanley and Christopher Czernik-Wojcicki, from Ray White Commercial Special Projects Queensland, then looked at development sites, industrial demand and the Brisbane pipeline through to 2032.
The useful part was not a single “buy now” or “wait” call. It was the reminder that price, borrowing power, rental policy and commercial supply can move in different directions at the same time.
This article summarises the points we think are worth sitting with. The full speaker-insights recap is about six minutes. If you want the complete video, leave your name, phone number and email at the end of this page and we will send the link.
There is no one Australian property market
Paul’s opening point was simple: Sydney is not Brisbane, a house is not a unit, and buying a home is not the same as buying an investment.
That sounds obvious. It is also the mistake most headline commentary makes. A national median, a national clearance rate, or a national “investor lending is back” story can hide the only numbers that matter to a particular buyer: the city, the asset type, the loan structure, and whether that person can hold the property if conditions stay tight.
For a Brisbane home buyer, an interstate investor, or someone comparing investment property finance, the same news item can point to three different decisions.
Contradiction 1: prices can fall and affordability can still get worse
The first contradiction is the one most people feel but rarely quantify.
Paul used a simple illustration. A house can fall from $1,000,000 to $950,000. That is a $50,000 discount. If borrowing power falls from $800,000 to $700,000 over the same period, the cheaper house is not more affordable. The buyer has a smaller voucher and a tighter credit card.
The figures are an example, not a valuation or a lender assessment. The mechanism is real. House prices, interest rates, living costs and bank serviceability settings do not move together. A 5% price cut does not help if the amount a lender will approve falls by more than that.
This is why a “the market is cheaper” headline is incomplete. The question for a buyer or refinancer is whether the gap between the property and their usable borrowing capacity has actually narrowed. That depends on income, existing commitments, the loan product, and the lender’s assessment of the property — not only the advertised price.
If you are weighing a purchase or a refinance against current serviceability, start with the mortgage repayment calculator and then have the full position assessed. Calculator results are estimates only.
Contradiction 2: we need rentals, but investment has to remain viable
The next tension was political as much as financial.
Someone still has to own the rental. Tenants need decent homes. If policy and public commentary keep making investment less attractive, capital can leave, and the renter is still standing there.
That is not an argument that every tax or planning setting should favour investors. It is a reminder that rental supply is not created by demand alone. For readers looking at a Brisbane investment, the practical questions sit on the investment property loans page: deposit, serviceability, loan structure, and whether the property still works after costs.
The market is being pulled both ways
Paul’s summary of “what is actually happening now” was a tug of war, not a one-way story.
On one side: higher rates, lower borrowing power, and the cost of living. On the other: a housing shortage, population growth, tight rentals and limited supply.
Those forces can produce an undersupplied market and a more cautious buyers’ market at the same time. People are still looking. They are just more deliberate than they were a year ago.
The same caution showed up in the commercial session. Geopolitics, RBA settings and policy changes have slowed some buyers. The guests’ observation was that activity is returning, but with more homework attached.
Look past a single headline number
One of the sharper moments in the recap was a headline about new-build investor finance rising strongly, while total investor loans and first-home-buyer loans were weaker.
The point was not that the headline was fake. It was that a single percentage can describe settlements on decisions made a year or two earlier — especially off-the-plan stock that is only now completing. Encouraging is not the same as conclusive. Less investor competition also does not automatically mean first-home buyers can afford to buy.
The commercial lens: industrial strength, a closing development window
James Hanley, a sales executive and registered property valuer, and Christopher Czernik-Wojcicki, who works in property development and finance, focused on South East Queensland.
Their commercial snapshot, as presented on the night:
- Industrial has been the strongest commercial segment. A shortage of industrial-zoned land across SEQ is keeping demand firm.
- Office remains softer after COVID, with thinner transaction volumes.
- Population growth and undersupply still support the development case.
- Construction cost, builder capacity and a cost-escalation window from mid-2027 are the constraints. The guests’ view was that the window to commence some built-form projects before that period is closing.
- House-and-land remains highly competitive. Townhouses are growing. Apartments only work where the numbers work.
Those are guest views from the night, not Smart Mortgage forecasts. Readers looking at development or business premises can start with property development loans and business loans.
What we took from the night
You cannot control the RBA, inflation or the next policy announcement. You can control the property you buy, the price you pay, the loan you take, and the buffer you keep.
For the right person, the right property, at a price they can hold, it can still be a sensible time to act. That sentence only works if “right” is specific: serviceability, valuation, cash to complete, and a plan if rates or costs stay elevated.
Knowledge, strategy and discipline were Paul’s closing words. They are also the only useful response to a market being pulled in both directions.